Life is uncertainty.

The current changes around #Covid19 show us in a dramatic way in which increasingly complex and chaotic environment we are moving. We find ourselves in a situation of complete uncertainty. No script remains valid, almost all parameters are subject to massive uncertainty. Even the estimation whether it is only a short-term or a long-term phenomenon is not possible. At the same time, a perceived 1,000 regulations must nevertheless be taken into account. 

In complex situations like this we are shown the limits of our gut feeling. If we over-focus on events that are unknown to us and do not take recurring events into account enough, we speak of "attentional bias". This is where the sensible use of facts and figures can help us to be informed and relaxed instead of acting in anxiety and panic. 

At the same time, however, we are also made aware of the limits of automation. Which company can currently still afford to make decisions on autopilot? Why? Because the system is too complex and continuing to change. By the time you’ve gathered data and drawn conclusions, those data you originally collected are out of date. And even worse, after you’re sat around in meetings, debated what to do, came up with a solution, and delivered a solution to market… you’re REALLY behind. Only when working together in teams can people deal with such complex situations and exceptions. Capturing and evaluating can only work across departmental and organizational boundaries.

Let us look at the one question that we are most concerned with at the moment: How and when can we return to personal freedom? That's not something the doctors have the answers to alone. Economists, mathematicians, sociologists and psychologists are now also called upon. Because that too is crucial for good decisions: To change discipline and with it the perspective. 

Even in "normal" times, things are not as different as they seem at the moment. What is different is above all our perception. What we are experiencing now is also a consequence of this VUCA world, which was talked about again and again before the crisis, without us having a proper idea of what it actually means. We overlook the fact that most things in our lives are uncertain: We might fall into a tree tomorrow or get cancer... 

So we must stop deriving security from continuity alone. A plan is not the inevitable future, but the preparation for possible futures. What we are planning now may be obsolete at any time tomorrow.

Life is uncertainty. 

COVID19 is our chance to become more risk competent and to bury the illusion of security. We can and may learn to use our minds again in our offices at home without the guidance of others. That is why we should now use the momentum created by our handling of the corona virus to turn a crisis into a lasting cultural change.